{"id":1241,"date":"2018-08-20T03:42:58","date_gmt":"2018-08-20T03:42:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/?p=566"},"modified":"2025-05-02T01:57:22","modified_gmt":"2025-05-02T01:57:22","slug":"peaking-theme-park","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/peaking-theme-park\/","title":{"rendered":"Managing Extremes: Seasonality &#038; Peaking of a Theme Park"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\"><div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_63 ez-toc-wrap-left counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title \" >Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/peaking-theme-park\/#Extremes\" title=\"Extremes\">Extremes<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/peaking-theme-park\/#Seasonality_Notes\" title=\"Seasonality Notes\">Seasonality Notes<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/peaking-theme-park\/#Peaking_Ratios\" title=\"Peaking Ratios\">Peaking Ratios<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/peaking-theme-park\/#Design_Day\" title=\"Design Day\">Design Day<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/peaking-theme-park\/#Summary\" title=\"Summary\">Summary<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">Variability causes chaos.\u00a0 And variability when it comes to the attraction world, is perhaps nowhere so present or prominent as it is when designing and operating a theme park.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">Compared to other types of real estate or property, theme parks might be the most extreme in terms of variability.\u00a0 Compared to commercial properties that provide services in return for 1, 3, 5+ year contracts, a theme park provides entertainment and leisure on the basis of 1-day tickets.\u00a0 This causes enormous demand swings depending on holidays, vacation periods, and weather.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">And compared to, say, a hotel, which also experience similar types of peaking, theme parks have the additional complexity of having to manage <em><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">hourly<\/span><\/em> peaking within the day.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">As an illustration of the seasonality experienced by theme parks, we are covering the<strong>\u00a0Tokyo Disney Resort<\/strong> parks in this article.\u00a0 Not only are Tokyo Disneyland and DisneySea two of the highest attended parks in the world, they are also subject to average temperatures that swing from freezing to sweltering throughout the year, vacation and holiday periods: and so they experience a full range of seasonality factors.<\/span><\/p>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Extremes\"><\/span><strong>Extremes<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">The extreme variability of annual attendance can be seen on the charts below.\u00a0 Often clients will ask us what the \u2018average\u2019 attendance of an attraction will be &#8211; and unless you have an attraction that has steady attendance distributed evenly throughout the year, this is a nonsensical question.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">At both Tokyo Disneyland and DisneySea, you can observe that\u00a0its extreme variability,\u00a0<strong>with daily attendance at 10,000\u00a0during the winter months, to nearly 80,000 during the fall months, is a 700% swing.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-571\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/TDL.png\" width=\"1103\" height=\"637\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/TDS.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-570\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/TDS.png\" width=\"1109\" height=\"641\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">If we really wanted to figure out the &#8216;average&#8217;, or &#8216;median&#8217; attendance, we could, but this has little applicability beyond the mathematical exercise.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Disneyland.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-579\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Disneyland.png\" width=\"900\" height=\"485\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/DisneySea.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-578\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/DisneySea.png\" width=\"900\" height=\"481\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">Instead of asking what the &#8216;average&#8217; attendance is, it&#8217;s best to look at this as a capacity management exercise \u2013 how to best shrink and increase capacity of attractions, labor, and services both during the week and throughout the year?<\/span><\/p>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Seasonality_Notes\"><\/span><strong>Seasonality Notes<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">For Tokyo Disney Resort, <strong>the peak month is in October<\/strong>.\u00a0\u00a0A combination of pleasant weather and seasonal events (Halloween) drive peaking to absolute extremes during its weekends, though.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">The span of green between January into early summer are the low periods; this was surprising to us, especially as schools break during the March and April months.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">August is an interesting month for its <strong>relatively flat seasonality<\/strong>, and attendance almost equivalent between weekdays and weekends.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">Weekends, expectedly, experience very high peaks.\u00a0 During some months, the Saturday visitation is nearly triple the average weekday attendance (see: January, DisneySea), and <strong>on average, Saturday &amp; Sunday visitation accounts for 40-50% of the entire week&#8217;s attendance<\/strong>.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/TDR.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-569\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/TDR.png\" width=\"1071\" height=\"669\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Peaking_Ratios\"><\/span><strong>Peaking Ratios<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">Here&#8217;s a brief overview of the peaking ratios that the Tokyo Disney parks experience.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">The peak month is approximately 11-14% of the annual attendance.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-577 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/TDLMonth.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"563\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-576 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/TDSMonth.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"544\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">The peak week, of that month (October) is approximately 25% at both parks.\u00a0 This is not a foregone conclusion of dividing 1 week by 4 weeks\/month; October has 31 days so the average week would be ~23%.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-575 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/TDRWeek.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"646\" height=\"599\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">The peak day is about\u00a020-21% of the peak week.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-574\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/TDRDay.png\" width=\"645\" height=\"600\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">Just as attendance is not evenly distributed during the year, month, or week, attendance ebbs and flows during the course of an operating day.\u00a0 In Tokyo Disney&#8217;s case, we see that this peak tends to be around 3pm, while Tokyo DisneySea&#8217;s peak skews later on Saturdays (night shows)\u00a0and Tuesdays.\u00a0 Based on the 8-9 hour average length of stay that Tokyo Disney experiences, combined with its 14 hour operating schedule (8am to 10pm) during peak seasons, we estimate about 75-80% of the design day attendance will be present during the peak hour.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-583\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/TDLHour.png\" width=\"645\" height=\"534\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-582\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/TDSHour.png\" width=\"645\" height=\"535\" \/><\/p>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Design_Day\"><\/span><strong>Design Day<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">The design day is a theme park design principle; specifically, that a park&#8217;s capacity should be designed to the average of its highest attended 15-25 days.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">Designing to the absolute peaks would be folly, because the park would then run empty during most of the year &#8211; while from a guest experience it might be fun to go on all the rides\u00a0three times\u00a0in a row, from the park&#8217;s perspective, this is inefficient\u00a0and costly.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/TDLDD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-581\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/TDLDD.png\" width=\"880\" height=\"426\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/TDSDD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-580\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/TDSDD.png\" width=\"880\" height=\"416\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">Using design day theory (that a park\u00a0should be designed to the average of its highest attended 15-25 days), then we see that both parks should be designed to approximately 0.5-0.6% of the annual attendance, on average.<\/span><\/p>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Summary\"><\/span><strong>Summary<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">The seasonality of an existing or proposed park leads to operational complexity.\u00a0 For potential parks, planning around these peaks is one of the most important design decisions that a planner can make.\u00a0 For existing parks, operating around these peaks is one of the most important operational challenges.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">With all that said,\u00a0this analysis also shows us that <strong>the best time to visit one of the world\u2019s best theme parks, DisneySea, is Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday during the winter.\u00a0 <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Noted<\/span><\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">We hope that insight in itself is worth the read.<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 20px; font-family: 'EB Garamond';\">If you&#8217;re ready, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/store\/product\/development-and-business-model-suite\/\">develop your own models<\/a> using the same template we use.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Variability causes chaos.\u00a0 And variability when it comes to the attraction world, is perhaps nowhere so present or prominent as it is when designing and operating a theme park. Compared to other types of real estate or property, theme parks might be the most extreme in terms of variability.\u00a0 Compared to commercial properties that provide [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3793,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,7,9],"tags":[68,69,70,71,18,72],"class_list":["post-1241","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics","category-guides-and-references","category-theme-parks","tag-design-day","tag-peaking","tag-planning","tag-seasonality","tag-theme-parks","tag-variability"],"acf":{"":"","bfi_title":"","bfi_title_2":"","bfi_description":"","chart_image":"","chart_title":"","chart_description":"","bc_title":"","bc_sub_title":"","bc_content":"","bc_right_side_content":"","highlighted_image":"","highlighted_sub_title":"","highlighted_title":"","highlighted_bottom_text":"","highlighted_button_text":"","highlighted_button_link":"","below_highlighted_title":"","below_highlighted_sub_title":"","below_highlighted_content":"","below_highlighted_right_side_title":"","below_highlighted_list":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1241","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1241"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1241\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3793"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1241"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1241"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theparkdb.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1241"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}